Ini pembagian kursi DPR-RI dapil Sulut dalam kajian TUMBELAKA Academic Centre

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Taufik M Tumbelaka, Direktur Eksekutif TUMBELAKA Academic Centre.

HASIL diskusi Lembaga Studi Sosial & Politik TUMBELAKA Academic Centre terkait konstelasi Pemilu Legislatif (Pileg) 2019 untuk DPR-RI daerah pemilihan (dapil) Sulut, terungkap dari sejumlah calon yang diajukan oleh parpol yang ada, maka diprediksi Dra Adriana Dondokambey akan memperoleh kursi pertama. Sedangkan kursi jatah lainnya masih menjadi persaingan ketat.

Peluang terbesar ada di Adriana Dondokambey dikarenakan parpol pengusungnya, PDI-Perjuangan, mempunyai mesin politik yang solid dan telah teruji seperti dalam Pilkada Sulut, Pilkada Minahasa, dan juga perolehan suara Olly Dondokambey SE pada saat Pileg 2014 lalu. Selain itu munculnya prediksi peluang besar ada pada Adriana Dondokambey dikarenakan yang bersangkutan merupakan kader andalan PDI-Perjuangan.

Diprediksi jika mesin politik parpol berjalan maksimal, maka hanya akan ada 3 parpol mendominasi dan bersaing cukup ketat dalam Pileg 2019 untuk perebutan jatah DPR-RI dapil Sulut, yaitu PDI-Perjuangan, Partai Golkar dan Partai Nasdem. Bahkan ada peluang jika 3 parpol memainkan strategi lapangan yang jitu, akan memperoleh hasil di atas target politik.

Golkar misalnya, mempunyai caleg DPR-RI yang merata untuk zona Nusa Utara, zona Bolmong Raya dan zona Minahasa Raya dengan 3 Kepala Daerah (Minsel, Tomohon, Sangihe). Jika memaksimalkan kekuatan mesin politik parpol dan ditunjang kerjasama yang baik antar caleg, maka berpeluang meraih 2 kursi dengan minimal 1 kursi.

Hal yang sama juga dimiliki Nasdem dengan kekuatan 5 Kepala Daerah (Bitung, Manado, Kotamobagu, Bolmong, Minut) plus Bupati Talaud terpilih dr Elly Lasut, ditopang 2 caleg andalan mereka yakni Benny Mamoto dan Felly Runtuwene. Belum lagi ditambah artis nasional Mongol Stres, maka jika terjadi kolaborasi internal akan berpeluang bukan cuma 1 kursi tapi juga 2 kursi.(*)

Manado, 21 Januari 2019

Salam,
Taufik M Tumbelaka
(Direktur Eksekutif TUMBELAKA Academic Centre)

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