Survei Charta Politika: 7 parpol diprediksi lolos ke DPR-RI

Parpol peserta Pemilu 2019.

JAKARTA, BERITASULUT.CO.ID – Pemilu Serentak 2019 sudah di depan mata. Rabu (17/04/2019) tengah pekan ini, Indonesia akan memilih Presiden-Wakil Presiden, DPD-RI, DPR-RI, DPRD Provinsi, dan DPRD Kota/Kabupaten. Lembaga survei kembali merilis hasil riset mereka.

Misalkan hasil survei lembaga Charta Politika, memperkirakan hanya 7 (tujuh) partai politik yang akan lolos parliamentary threshold atau ambang batas suara nasional 4 persen, dan berhak melenggang ke DPR-RI periode 2019-2024 mendatang.

Mereka adalah PDIP, Partai Gerindra, Partai Golkar, PKB, Partai NasDem, Partai Demokrat, serta PKS.

Pengambilan data dalam survei yang dirilis Charta Politika ini dilaksanakan pada 5-10 April 2019 melalui wawancara tatap muka dengan kuesioner terstruktur terhadap 2.000 responden berusia di atas 17 tahun dan terdaftar sebagai pemilih.

“Sampel dipilih menggunakan metode multistage random sampling. Margin of error survei ini plus-minus 2,19 persen pada tingkat kepercayaan 95 persen,” ujar Direktur Eksekutif Charta Politika Yunarto Wijaya saat memaparkan hasil survei di kantornya, Jakarta Selatan, Sabtu (13/04/2019) kemarin, diberitakan CNN Indonesia.

Dia mengatakan tingginya elektabilitas PDIP dan Gerindra karena mendapat efek ekor jas atau coattail effect dari dua calon presiden yang mereka usung.

Sementara itu, sembilan partai politik lainnya diprediksi tidak melewati ambang batas parlemen yang ditetapkan sebesar 4 persen.

Mereka adalah PAN 3,8 persen, PPP 3,1 persen, Perindo 2,2 persen, PSI 2,0 persen, Hanura 1,2 persen, PBB 0,3 persen, Garuda 0,3 persen, PKPI 0,1 persen, serta Berkarya 0,1 persen.

Namun, PAN, PPP, Perindo, dan PSI disebutkan Yunarto masih mempunyai peluang lolos ke parlemen karena surveinya memiliki margin of error sebesar 2,19 persen kemudian juga terdapat undecided voters atau pemilih yang belum menentukan pilihan sebesar 8,5 persen.

Terlebih, lanjutnya, pertanyaan yang disampaikan ke responden dalam survei ini ialah bila Pemilu 2019 berlangsung antara 5 hingga 10 April 2017.

“Tidak bisa kita menyebutkan itu karena ada undecided voters di 8,5 persen. Masih ada undecided voters, ini apabila dilakukan pemilu 5 sampai 10 April, bukan 17 April,” katanya.

Sementara untuk lima partai politik lainnya, kata Yunarto, diprediksi tidak lolos karena meski sudah ditambah margin of error 2,19 persen suara lima partai tersebut politik itu tetap tak mencapai ambang batas untuk lolos ke parlemen sebesar 4 persen.(CNNI)

Survei Charta Politika per 13 April 2019:

1. Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDIP) 24,1 persen
2. Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya (Gerindra) 14,9 persen
3. Partai Golongan Karya (Golkar) 11,4 persen
4. Partak Kebangkitan Bangsa (PKB) 8,4 persen
5. Partai Nasional Demokrat (NasDem) 6,8 persen
6. Partai Demokrat 6,6 persen
7. Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) 6,4 persen

8. Partai Amanat Nasional (PAN) 3,8 persen
9. Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (PPP) 3,1 persen
10. Partai Persatuan Indonesia (Perindo) 2,2 persen
11. Partai Solidaritas Indonesia (PSI) 2,0 persen
12. Partai Hati Nurani Rakyat (Hanura) 1,2 persen
13. Partai Bulan Bintang (PBB) 0,3 persen
14. Partai Gerakan Perubahan Indonesia (Garuda) 0,3 persen
15. Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan Indonesia (PKPI) 0,1 persen
16. Partai Berkarya 0,1 persen

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